Israel’s Annexation of the West Bank Would be a
Gift to Iran
Beleaguered by regional tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic,
and economic woes, Tehran could use anti-Israel sentiment to restore its
reputation.
BY ARIANE TABATABAI, HENRY ROME
| JUNE 26,
2020, 12:52 PM
Starting July 1, Israel may take the first step
toward annexing territory in the West Bank, in line with U.S. President Donald
Trump’s peace plan for the region. Discussions about the potential annexation
have mostly focused on its implications for the two-state solution and renewed
violence. But it would also have significant effects on Israel’s rivalry with
Iran and on U.S. efforts to isolate Tehran. Although many Israelis view
annexation as a strategic gain, the move would be a strategic gift for Tehran.
Annexation is not yet a done deal. According to
the Israeli government’s coalition agreement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
may hold a cabinet or parliamentary vote on unilaterally annexing West Bank
settlements and the Jordan Valley starting July 1, so long as the Israelis act
in concert with Washington. But Benny Gantz, the alternate prime minister and
defense minister, has expressed serious reservations, and Washington wants both
leaders to be in agreement before it greenlights any decision. As July
approaches, some Israeli politicians, retired security officials, and experts
have warned that annexation would bring about the end of the two-state solution
and potentially trigger another Palestinian intifada. And, for its part, Iran
would likely welcome the chance to reassert its anti-Israel credentials.
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Iran’s opposition to Israel, and its effort to
disrupt any Arab-Israeli normalization, dates back to the country’s founding.
The first supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, made opposition to Israel a core
pillar of the regime’s identity and approach to foreign affairs. These views
have endured largely without interruption. Iranian officials have stridently
opposed any progress toward Israeli-Palestinian peace, and Tehran has for
decades provided assistance to Palestinian groups such as Hamas and Palestinian
Islamic Jihad. The country has likewise tried to derail previous U.S.-supported
efforts to broker peace, including the 1991 Madrid conference and the 1993 Oslo
Accords.
Iran will likely spearhead international
opposition to annexation. The regime would raise the mantle of its defense of
Palestinian rights to distract from its own issues at home, including a botched
response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a weak economy, and general popular
exasperation with regime incompetence and corruption. Although the impact of
such a propaganda campaign in changing public sentiment would likely be
limited, it would lay the groundwork for the consolidation of a more hard-line
agenda after the 2021 presidential elections. The annexation would also provide
the regime with a golden opportunity to justify its increase in defense
spending and its controversial expenditures abroad.
Annexation would also provide Iran’s leaders with
more ammunition to criticize Israel and escape, if only rhetorically, the U.S.
campaign to isolate it in the region.
Perhaps more significantly, annexation would also
provide Iran’s leaders with more ammunition to criticize Israel and escape, if
only rhetorically, the U.S. campaign to isolate it in the region. Tehran can
direct its ire toward those Muslim nations that have started to quietly
normalize ties with Israel, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Iran’s regional policy has been a source of tension with its neighbors going
back decades, but these concerns have intensified since the Arab Spring, after
which Iran became more interventionist in conflicts in neighboring countries.
Arab public perceptions of Iran have suffered as its regional presence has
grown. And given that Iran was an epicenter for the coronavirus in the Middle
East, it is facing significant headwinds. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a
prime way for Iran to change the subject.
As annexation hands Iran an opportunity to
improve its standing in the Middle East, it would also weaken Israel’s standing
internationally and consume it domestically. In its zero-sum competition, a
distracted Israel is a strong plus for Iran. Key international players have
already made it clear that they oppose annexation and are preparing retaliatory
measures. European states have warned Israel against unilateral annexation and
are working with the European Union to develop sanctions. In the United States,
Israel would weaken its relationship with key Democrats and further polarize
American public support for Israel. The American Israel Public Affairs
Committee, a pro-Israel lobbying group, already gave U.S. legislators a green
light to publicly raise concerns about the annexation move, a rare decision for
the most prominent organization supporting U.S.-Israeli ties. Moreover, given
that the former vice president and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee
Joe Biden openly opposes annexation, Israel is setting itself up for a
difficult four years (at least) if Trump isn’t reelected in November. If
annexation triggers a new wave of Palestinian violence, Israel’s military and security
services will be forced to devote attention to the home front—giving Iran a
chance to strengthen its hand on Israel’s frontiers, undermining U.S. efforts
to keep Tehran under pressure across the region.
Meanwhile, Israel risks eroding years of work
toward normalizing relations with key regional states. Over the past decade,
Israel and Gulf Arab states have strengthened ties around a shared perception
of the Iranian threat. From the U.S. perspective, this is a strong positive for
its anti-Iran campaign. In practice, Arab states in the Persian Gulf may
continue their security cooperation with Israel thanks to their wariness of
Iran. But as the two sides of the Gulf take steps to address their issues (as
modeled by the United Arab Emirates and Iran) and Israel’s plan raises the cost
of Gulf acquiescence, public overtures toward Israel will be more difficult. In
an op-ed and video earlier this month, Emirati Ambassador to the United States
Yousef al-Otaiba underscored this point (although the UAE foreign minister last
week tried to temper his statement). For its part, Iran will make sure to
present itself as the only regional power still standing with Palestinians even
as Gulf monarchies fold. In the long term, other Muslim states may be dissuaded
from taking steps toward normalization with Israel.
Israel’s intention to pursue annexation has once
again elevated the Palestinian issue, handing Iran a fresh opportunity to play
the role of disruptor. Iran would be keen to exploit Israel’s isolation
regionally and internationally. A more distracted Israel gives Iran an
opportunity to shore up its diplomatic and military position in the region, at
precisely the time the Trump administration is trying to turn the screws
tighter. At the White House in January, Netanyahu praised the Trump proposal as
a “great plan” and the “opportunity of the century.” As Israel gears up for the
potential of annexation, Iranian leaders probably agree
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