Jerusalem Post Middle East
Iran under pressure after
fourth mysterious explosion
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-under-pressure-after-fourth-mysterious-explosion-633853
If Iran says it is under wide ranging,
near-daily, cyber assault, it will weigh what to do next.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
JULY 4, 2020 21:21
Iran is under intense pressure
after four serious explosions that appear to have damaged key infrastructure
linked to its missile and nuclear program, as well as other facilities.
On Saturday yet another massive
fire damaged a power plant in its restive Khuzestan province. Iran said, once
again, this was an accident. But quietly Iran is letting it be known that there
are concerns, including through commentary at its major media suggesting it
might respond to the attacks.
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On July 3, ImageSat
International (ISI) revealed images of the Khojir facility, the one that blew
up on June 26. That was the first of the four explosions. The ISI assessment
says that gas tanks were damaged under a shed and that the gas was destined for
a missile facility nearby.
We now know that another
incident occurred at a medical center days later in Tehran and then another
explosion damaged the Natanz facility on July 2. The July 2 explosion was then
identified by Kuwait’s Al-Jarida media as a cyber attack. This ups the concerns
for Tehran, because if it feels it is under a cyberattack it will need to
respond.
The latest explosion at a power
station in Ahvaz appeared to occur at a power station that regulates
electricity carried through automation and industrial controllers that can be
manipulated by a cyber attack, according to the open source intelligence social
media account Intelli Times.
Whether or not that is the case
is not as important as perceptions of what has happened and what Iran suspects
may have happened.
If Iran says it is under wide
ranging, near-daily, cyber assault, it will weigh what to do next.
Iran is proficient at cyber
warfare; it has carried out attacks in the past. Iran is also involved in a
half dozen conflicts around the Middle East. It has been bragging about arming
the Houthis in Yemen with drones and missiles to attack Saudi Arabia. It has
also been showing off its links to Hezbollah and Shi’ite militias in Iraq.
On Saturday in Iraq tensions
rose as some kind of explosion was heard near the Green Zone where the US
embassy is located.
Iran is also operating against
Kurdish dissidents along the Iraq border and is involved in Syria’s conflict.
It sent its IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani to the Albukamal border
town last month. Tensions in southern Syria between Iranian-backed elements and
others are increasing.
So far Iran has remained
relatively quiet in official responses. It has said the fire at the power plant
on Saturday was extinguished without casualties. That was in contrast to the
medical center explosion last week that did cause casualties.
This is what Iran must weigh
today: If Iran says it is under attack it must respond or be humiliated. It
would also show that its systems are compromised at its most sensitive sites.
If it says that all these are accidents then it must explain why there are so
many accidents. Neither choice is enviable. Either it will show weakness in its
defenses, or failing infrastructure.
The regime in Tehran thrives on
boasting of its capabilities. Also if it says it is under attack it will also
show it has been lying to international bodies potentially about the security
of its nuclear program. Since it has claimed these attacks were minor, taking
government media on tours, it would show it has lied. It has lied before. It
shot down a Ukrainian airline in January. But how many lies can the regime
tell? It must be careful in this respect.
Iran is seeking to trigger the
nuclear dispute mechanism as part of the 2015 Iran deal. If it triggers the
mechanism while claiming it is under attack this will lead to questions about
what it is seeking to accomplish. At the same time Iran may have suffered an
impact to key aspects of its supply chain for its surface-to-surface missiles
and its key advanced centrifuges program. The advanced centrifuges require a
certain gas known as hexafluoride. These may be the advanced IR-6 centrifuges.
The overall picture in Iran is
a regime pushing message discipline to weigh its response. It is juggling many
files across the region and dealing with the European Union while holding high
hopes for ending an arms embargo and going shopping in China and Russia in the
following months. The regime may not want to upset the apple cart.
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