Troubled Iran struggles to
maintain sway over Iraq militias
AP
By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA and SAMYA
KULLAB
June11 2020
BAGHDAD (AP)
— Iraqi militia factions expected the usual cash handout when the new head of
Iran’s expeditionary Quds Force made his first visit to Baghdad earlier this
year, succeeding the slain Gen. Qassim Soleimani. Instead, to their
disappointment, Esmail Ghaani brought them silver rings.
For his
second visit, Ghaani had to apply for a visa, something unheard of in
Soleimani’s time — a bold step by Baghdad’s new government effectively
curtailing Iran’s freedom of movement inside Iraq.
The episodes,
relayed to The Associated Press by several Iraqi officials, illustrate Iran’s
struggles to maintain sway over Iraqi militias six months after America
assassinated Soleimani and top militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in a drone
strike. Iran at the same time is grappling with the economic fallout from U.S.
sanctions and the coronavirus outbreak.
Without
imposing figures like Soleimani and al-Muhandis to unify disparate factions,
divisions have emerged in the Popular Mobilization Forces, the umbrella group
of mainly Shiite forces.
Their deaths
also disrupted a trajectory to institutionalize the militias, which al-Muhandis
had been meticulously planning with Soleimani’s blessing.
“With
al-Muhandis gone, there is an absence of an anchor around which (PMF) politics
revolves,” said Fanar Haddad, an Iraq researcher.
REDUCED FUNDS AND CLOUT
Among Iraq’s
Shiite political and militia factions, Soleimani, a chief architect of Iran’s
proxy groups across the region, held almost legendary status.
Charismatic and a fluent Arabic
speaker, his rapport with Iraqi officials was unmatched. He slipped in and out
of Iraq regularly to plan, mediate and give out cash assistance. One surprise
visit by him was sufficient to broker agreement between rival factions,
officials said.
Since his
death, Shiite factions have shown discord, arguing over a premier candidate
twice before they settled on Mustafa al-Kadhimi.
Soleimani’s
successor as Quds Force commander, Ghaani, is less familiar with Iraqi militia
leaders and speaks to them through an interpreter. Meetings in Iraq have
increasingly been handled by Iranian Ambassador Iraj Masjedi, himself a former
Quds Force member.
Ghaani’s gift of silver rings —
symbolically important in Shiite Islam — rather than cash came during a meeting
in April with leaders of several militia factions, according to three
officials. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not
authorized to talk to the press.
Ghaani told them that, for the
moment, they would have to rely on Iraqi state funding, they said, a sign of
Iran’s economic crisis.
The PMF are paid primarily
through the state — $2 billion in the 2019 budget — but the funds are not
dispersed equally. Smaller Iranian-backed groups rely on other informal means
of revenue and receive extras from Iran, roughly $3-9 million, two Iraqi
officials close to the militias said.
GROWING FRACTURES
The PMF was created in 2014 as
a framework to organize and pay the thousands who volunteered to fight the
Islamic State group after a fatwa by Iraq’s top cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani. Since then, its political and military might has soared. Under the
staunchly pro-Iranian al-Muhandis, it became a channel for Tehran’s influence.
His death opened the door for
factions opposed to that influence — particularly ones associated with
al-Sistani — to break from the PMF leadership. Militias complain that
Iran-friendly groups receive preferential treatment.
The man seen
as al-Muhandis’ likely successor, Abdulaziz al-Mohammadawi, known as Abu Fadak,
met opposition from factions who saw him as the Iranian-backed choice. He has
not been officially recognized by the prime minister, though he has assumed
some administrative duties, according to officials.
Some of the most Iran-friendly
militias under the PMF have shown signs of splintering.
Attacks against U.S. forces in
March were claimed by a purported new group, Usbat al-Thairen, believed to have
emerged from the powerful Kataib Hezbollah, which the U.S. accused in previous
attacks.
Recently,
four militias affiliated with the shrines connected to al-Sistani said they
would take orders directly from Iraq’s premier, bypassing the PMF leadership.
A senior
official from Kataib Hezbollah said the move has weakened the PMF and its
legitimacy among the public. For many Iraqis, the group’s credibility is
derived from al-Sistani’s fatwa.
The fissure was plain to see
when, weeks into his leadership, Prime Minister al-Kadhimi visited the PMF
headquarters. To his right, sat figures friendly with Tehran, to his left,
those affiliated with al-Sistani.
It marks a “major wrench” by
the Shiite establishment led by al-Sistani into Iran’s broader plans, said
Randa Slim, director of the Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program
at the Middle East Institute.
“They are basically saying we
do not want an organ that takes its orders from Iran,” she said.
UNCERTAIN FUTURE
A larger
question looms over the future of the PMF.
Al-Muhandis
had been directing plans to transform a band of independent militias into a
more professional force. Those plans remain unfinished, said three militia
commanders on a recent visit to Mosul.
Under
al-Muhandis, the PMF began referring to its units by brigade numbers rather
than faction names and made moves toward imposing military rank structures and
disciplinary courts. He oversaw the creation of engineering units providing
services such as roadworks.
He held
immense influence over militias and their supporters.
When protesters attacked the
U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on Dec. 31 in response to American strikes on Kataib
Hezbollah targets, it was al-Muhandis and not Iraqi security forces who was
ultimately called upon to have them pull back, according to two Iraqi officials.
“Hajj Abu Mahdi made us an
official group, it’s the most important thing he did,” said Mohammed
al-Mousawi, a PMF commander. For the years ahead, he had planned greater
training for fighters, academies and recruitment to improve management,
al-Mousawi said.
Iran appears to be taking a
back foot in Iraq. But, experts said, this is likely be short-lived.
“Iran has proved that it learns
and evolves,” said Slim. “Now it’s in the learning phase.”
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