Coronavirus:
US-Iran tension is just one example of rising temperatures around the world
https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/coronavirus-us-iran-tension-is-just-one-example-of-rising-temperatures-around-the-world-1.1010858
Uncertainty within national
borders is leading to diplomatic friction between countries
This US Navy photo shows Iranian Navy
vessels closing in on the USS Paul Hamilton. AFP
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Even as the
coronavirus-infected world has witnessed numerous examples of
collaboration and co-operation between individuals, organisations and
nations, there are also worrying signs of confrontation between key actors in
the region and on the global stage.
The recent escalation in
US-Iran tensions in the Gulf waters is an important example. Incidents of Iranian gunboats harassing American
warships, which have prompted a stern warning from US President
Donald Trump, are related to several
factors. They include the recent collapse in oil prices, the US presidential
election in November and the holy month of Ramadan.
Indeed, some
Iranian leaders see Ramadan as an opportunity to mobilise public support for
the regime in Tehran, especially if Mr Trump delivers on his threat to
"destroy" any of their gunboats. They are probably also hoping that
the escalation will lead to an increase in oil prices, which should presumably
benefit oil-producing countries such as theirs, while dragging Mr Trump into a
military confrontation that could prove costly in an election year.
Members of Iranian Red Crescent
test people with possible coronavirus Covid-19 symptoms, as police blocked
Tehran to Alborz highway to check every car following ordered by the Iranian
government, outside Tehran. AFPREAD MRE FROM RAGHIDA DERGHAM
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A
confrontation is being "cooked up in Tehran" right now, I have
reliably been informed, with the purpose of deflecting internal social
pressures. Ordinary Iranians are said to be preparing for what is likely to be
"a difficult post-Ramadan phase” because of the punishing effect of the
coronavirus pandemic on an economy already battered by US-led sanctions.
Having
concluded that Covid-19 will not lead to an end to American sanctions or the
implementation of the European mechanism for circumventing those
sanctions, the regime has seemingly opted
to rely on military confrontation. According
to reports, Iran could target tankers in the Gulf in the coming week.
It would
therefore be foolhardy to expect the regime to reconsider
its expansionary policies in the region. A visit to
Damascus by Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif last
week has only re-affirmed Tehran's support for
Syrian President Bashar Al Assad's regime.
That meeting
received negative coverage in the Russian
media,
with Moscow being a key
ally of Damascus. However, Iran and Russia have since renewed their pledge to
co-operate in the war-torn country. It has also been reliably learnt that
Russia – which is currently wrestling with the pandemic and the oil shock –
will resume its support for the Assad regime over a new offensive in the
north-western province of Idlib, parts of which are still held by rebels.
Russia is indeed reeling as a
result of the virus – primarily because of the oil prices. Last week, the
former deputy foreign minister Dr Andrei Fedorov had correctly predicted
in this column that prices would crash below zero. His view was that
this crisis is troubling for Russia, which lacks the economic resilience that
Saudi Arabia, for instance, enjoys. “We are on the verge of an economic crisis
that will last for at least two years," Dr Andrei Fedorov said.
These days, there is concern
among many governments – particularly the Trump administration – that the
crisis could lead to social unrest, uprisings and protests, many of which have
already begun in the virtual sphere. The growth of these protests is likely to
encourage leaders to ease lockdowns, which exacerbate unemployment levels and
stoke feelings of restlessness.
The US-China relations could
prove to be a key factor in the presidential election. The opposition
Democratic Party has accused Mr Trump of excessively blaming Beijing for
the sake of electoral calculations. But the fact that Germany, the UK, France
and other European nations are also holding China partly responsible for the
spread of the virus has made it look weak.
On the other hand, the
Trump-led Republican Party supports the idea of confronting China, with US
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's allegation that the virus originated
in a Chinese lab receiving support within the party. All this is
unlikely to bode well for Beijing’s reputation. And even though there are signs
of an economic revival in China, authorities recently had to shut down the city
of Harbin. All eyes will therefore be on the outcome of the Communist Party
Central Committee meeting in the coming weeks, with speculation that Beijing
could suspend projects under its Belt and Road Initiative.
It is important to point out
that leaders and followers all over the world have been left anxious by the
terrible tempest unleashed by this virus. And the problem is that there is
little to indicate that tensions – be they military, economic or social in
nature – will recede quickly in the post-coronavirus world.
پیش بسوی قیام سراسری ، ما بر اندازیم# کانونهای شورشی در شهرهای ایران # #Iran
#سال_سرنگونی #ایران #کروناویروس #قیام_تا_پیروزی #coronavirus
اعتصاب واعتراض #شورش #زندانیان ، تظاهرات# سرنگونی #COVID2019 # اتحادوهمبستگی - مرگ_بر_دیکتاتور #مجاهدین خلق ایران
