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Jerusalem Post Middle East
Iran leaving Syria? Not so
fast, says US Syria envoy
Reports from Israel last week
indicated that some believe Iran is reducing its role
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
MAY 2020 23:23
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-leaving-syria-not-so-fast-says-us-syria-envoy-627410
A man carries a giant flag made
of flags of Iran, Palestine, Syria and Hezbollah, during a ceremony marking the
37th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, in Tehran, Feburary 2016
(photo credit: RAHEB
HOMAVANDI/REUTERS)
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US Special
Representative for Syria engagement threw cold water on reports that Iran might
be reducing its role in Syria. Speaking on Thursday US Ambassador James Jeffrey
said that the US has not seen any strategic Iranian changes in Syria when it
comes to using the country as a “second launchpad for long-range weapons
against Israel.” In short, reports of Iran’s
demise in Syria are premature.
Reports from
Israel last week indicated that some believe Iran is reducing its role. This
was pushed by at least one Israeli defense official last week via reports in
media that appeared to indicate there was some consensus in Jerusalem regarding
Iran’s reduction of forces. Israel has vowed to keep up pressure on Iran in
Syria.
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Iran was
believed to have around 1,000 of its
own forces and thousands of pro-Iranian Shi’ite paramilitaries active in Syria.
Yet Iran also has suffered blows in recent years, with more than 1,000
airstrikes on some 250 Iranian targets.
In the last weeks the Syrian regime blamed Israel for numerous attacks,
including near Palmyra, Albukamal, T-4, Shayrat, Damascus and near Homs and
Aleppo. The question is whether the numerous attacks led to Iranian forces
leaving or just rebuilding damaged buildings.
Jeffrey
addressed this issue directly, noting that reports from Jerusalem had said
Iranians were withdrawing. “We see some Iranian movement around Syria pulling
back from areas where the Israelis struck the,” he said at the State Department
May 7 briefing. “We’ve also seen a withdrawal of Iranian-backed militias – some
Hezbollah, some from other countries. But this may be chalked up to a
relative lull in the fighting. These are frontline combat forces.”
Then Jeffrey gave the bad news.
“What we have not seen – and I want to underline this – is any strategic
Iranian commitment not to try to use Syria both as a second launching pad for
long-range weapons against Israel and as a conduit – the famous Shia Crescent –
on to provide Hezballah more lethal and more modern precision-guided missiles,
again, to threaten Israel.”
Jeffrey indicated that based on
Washington’s view, that is likely based on intelligence assessments provided to
the State Department, there simply is no big change in Iran’s role in Syria or
its overall strategic view of using Syria to threaten Israel and digest
Lebanon. Jeffrey discussed Iran’s strategic goal has having more importance
than these tactical responsitioning of forces that Iran has engaged in. Jeffrey
also said that Iran was “not only was willing to use forces to bolster the
Syrian regime, it also started introducing long-range weapon systems,
precision-guided missiles – some for its own forces in Syria, some pushed
onward to Hezbollah to seriously threaten Israeli security, and the Israelis
have reacted in various ways.”
Jeffrey indicated that Russia
was surprised by Iran using Syria to threaten Israel. Jeffrey believes Russia
is frustrated with the Assad regime. The US is monitoring how Iran may be
moving ground forces in Syria that have become costly amid sanctions on Tehran.
But Washington wants not only the Iranians out but the Iranian-commanded
militias, such as those from Afghanistan and Iraq. The US shifted to this
policy in 2018, seeking to reduce the Iranian role in Syria.
Jeffrey’s
assessment is interesting because it presents a clear picture of Iran’s
long-term goal and throws some cold water on claims inside Israel regarding
Iran’s changes on the ground. Israeli commentators are also critical of the
“Iran is leaving” story. Alex Fishman and Ron Ben Yishai both wrote at Israel’s
Ynet that Iran has not halted plans for entrenchment in Syria.
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