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Israel speculated to be behind
mysterious explosion at Iranian nuclear site
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-nuclear-explosion-israel-natanz-a9603976.html
Iran may be compelled to
respond to any attack on critical site at Natanz
Borzou DaragahiInternational
Correspondent @borzou
4 hours ago
A suspicious explosion last
week badly damaged one of the most sensitive and prized sites in Iran’s nuclear
programme. Now speculation has begun to mount over who or what caused it, and
what Iran might do in response.
The focus of allegations of an
attack fall on Israel, which has conducted clandestine operations on Iranian
soil in the past – seizing documents and files about Iran’s nuclear programme –
and has a motive for slowing down Tehran’s nuclear technology development.
Sabotage of the site by Israel
or any other group or country would mean glaring security deficiencies and
possible enemy infiltration at one of Iran’s most sensitive sites.
The explosion on Thursday took
place at a workshop near the central Iranian city of Natanz, where scientists
and engineers have been striving to build advanced centrifuges to more quickly
and efficiently produce enriched uranium that could be used for atomic weapons.
It followed a 26 June explosion at the missile facility of Parchin, which was
allegedly used to conduct nuclear research in the 1990s, on the outskirts of
Tehran.
Iran has now admitted that the
2 July explosion caused “significant damage” but has not disclosed what caused
it. It has yet to react to allegations in published reports that Israel placed
a bomb in the building but has insisted it plans to build an even bigger
facility to replace it.
“There were no casualties as a
result of the incident, but significant damage was incurred,” said Behrouz
Kamalvandi, spokesman for Iran’s atomic energy authority. “There were advanced
equipment and precision measurement devices at this site that were either
destroyed or damaged ... possibly causing a delay in development and production
of advanced centrifuge machines in the medium term.”
There were no reports of
radiation leaks from the site, a research facility well known to International
Atomic Energy Agency inspectors who monitor Iran’s nuclear programme. Uranium
enriched in centrifuges to lower levels of purity can be used for peaceful
power generation, medicine and scientific research.
According to satellite imagery,
the damage was extensive, and potentially caused a major setback in Iran’s
nuclear research and development programme.
“Centrifuges are incredibly
sensitive; even if you have a basic design getting them running is quite a
feat,” Fabian Hinz, a researcher at the James Martin Centre for
Nonproliferation Studies in California. “Because they spin at such insane
speeds you have to balance the rotors very, very exactly so that the whole
thing won’t just blow apart, which in turn requires sensitive instrumentation,
and all of that would have been done in that building.”
Iran spends an estimated 3 or 4
per cent of its gross domestic product on defence, and allocates a significant
part of its government budget towards policing, surveilling, prosecuting and
imprisoning an increasingly restless population of 83 million. Yet it could not
protect one of its most important sites from sabotage by a foreign power.
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Speculation first centred on a
possible cyber-attack, but the size of the blast made it likely that some sort
of explosive device had been placed at the site.
“The really interesting
question here is how did they do it?” said Mr Hinz. “If it was a cyberattack
you would need something already inside that causes an explosion like this. If
this was a missile factory or an explosives workshop sure. But a centrifuge
assembly workshop? I don’t think so.”
But any risky Israeli or
American sabotage operation against Iranian attempts to develop advanced
centrifuges would also underscore the incoherence of policies on Iran’s nuclear
programme. Iran accelerated its development of advanced centrifuges only after
the US president, Donald Trump, opted to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal
under the tutelage of Israel and a small cluster of influential of pro-Israel
operatives in Washington.
I don’t think they’re going to
want to demonstrate any weakness to the domestic constituency. It’s going to be
a rhetorical response unless there is very clear evidence implicating the
Israelis or another government
Sanam Vakil, Chatham House
Israel, the only nuclear power
in the Middle East, and the Trump administration are convinced Iran is using
the guise of a civilian nuclear programme to pursue weapons capability.
But US intelligence officials
have repeatedly concluded Iran abandoned a clandestine nuclear weapons
programme in 2003. Most independent researchers and experts surmise that Iran
is attempting to assemble all the necessary components of a nuclear weapons
programme to give itself the option to break its non-proliferation treaty
obligations and weaponise its programme.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear deal assembled by the US, European
nations, Russia and China – was meant to guide Iran’s nuclear programme towards
civilian ends with a package of economic and diplomatic incentives.
In contrast to attacks on
Iranian allies in Syria, Israel has kept mum about any role it may have had in
any recent explosions, likely an attempt to avoid compelling an Iranian
response. “We have a long-term policy over the course of many administrations
not to allow Iran to have nuclear abilities,” Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi
said Sunday. “We take actions that are better left unsaid.”
Defence minister Benny Gantz
alluded to Iran’s long track record of industrial accidents. “Not every
incident that happens in Iran necessarily has something to do with us,” he was
quoted as saying.
Iran’s atomic spokesman Mr
Kamalvandi said that Iranian security officials would not disclose the cause of
the blast due to “security reasons”. The Natanz facility was inaugurated in
2013 but had not been completely finished by the time Iran agreed to reduce its
nuclear activities in 2015.
Domestic and international
dynamics may force Iran to respond in some way for the blast, even as it awaits
November elections that could see Trump ousted and the resurrection of the
nuclear deal under a Joe Biden presidency.
If it was a cyberattack you
would need something already inside that causes an explosion like this. If this
was a missile factory or an explosives workshop sure. But a centrifuge assembly
workshop? I don’t think so
Fabian Hinz, James Martin
Centre for Nonproliferation Studies
“Iran’s first suspect is
Israel,” said Ali Omidi, a professor of international relations at Iran’s
University of Isfahan. “Given that Israeli authorities did not publicly take
responsibility for the Natanz incident, I think Iran will react with a
cyber-attack. If Israeli authorities take responsibility, in my opinion, Iran
will attack more openly.”
Pressure could be mounting for
a response, despite counsel by JCPOA signatories eager to prevent armed
conflict in the Middle East. An Iranian parliament dominated by noisy
hardliners was recently sworn in and appears eager to make its mark and
humiliate the pragmatist administration of President Hassan Rouhani. An Iranian
official boasted on Sunday that the Revolutionary Guard had installed batteries
of underground missiles aimed at the Persian Gulf.
“They’re going to ramp up
rhetoric against Israel and the Gulf countries,” said Sanam Vakil, an Iran
specialist at Chatham House. “I don’t think they’re going to want to demonstrate
any weakness to the domestic constituency. It’s going to be a rhetorical
response unless there is very clear evidence implicating the Israelis or
another government.”
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