KILGOUR: Iran's new president will bring more instability to Middle East
Author of the article:David Kilgour
Publishing date:Jul 05, 2021 • 9 hours ago • 3 minute read • Join the conversation
Iran's President-elect Ebrahim Raisi speaks during a news conference in Teh-ran, Iran June 21, 2021.
Iran's President-elect Ebrahim Raisi speaks during a news conference in Teh-ran, Iran June 21, 2021. PHOTO BY WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY /REUTERS
The June 18 election of Iranian chief justice, Ebrahim Raisi, as president of Iran — through behind-the-scenes manipulation by Supreme Leader Khame-nei and his Council of Islamic Guardians — bodes ill for Iran and could lead to more political instability in the Middle East.
With Raisi’s win, leading institutions — from the presidency, military to par-liament and judiciary — have passed into the hands of militant clerics, shift-ing the country towards a one-party state.
Voter turnout in a population of 82 million was 48.8 %, a quarter lower than in 2017. “It was a protest vote … against the political system,” says Sanam Vakil, Iran expert at Chatham House, “… frustration that (Iranians) are no longer … considered … important to this process.”
Khameini-backed Raisi promises, without giving details to tackle inflation, to create one million jobs annually, promote transparency, and fight corruption.
As proxy president, 60-year-old Raisi, who lacks experience in politics, gov-ernance and diplomacy, will protect the 82-year-old Khameini’s legacy and safeguard the interests of his son Mojtaba.
The struggle between the hardliners and pragmatists, such as outgoing presi-dent Hassan Rouhani, may end.
Iranians’ aspirations for a better life are now at odds with an unreformable re-gime.
Iran’s society remains divided, with the tipping point in the regime’s favour.
Its totalitarian methods will increase schisms and instability, forcing more skilled Iranians to leave the country, thus stunting economic growth.
Raisi has a bloody past. In 1981, aged 20 and a regional prosecutor, he over-saw the crackdown on Bahá’ís. Payam Akhavan, an Iranian-born Canadian lawyer specializing in prosecuting war crimes/crimes against humanity, re-members his uncle being tortured to death.
Raisi was a “fanatic” willing to follow any of Khomeini’s orders.
In 1988, following the overthrow of the Shah Pahlavi monarchy, Raisi — by then 33 — served on a panel of judges known as the “Death Commission”. Thousands were executed behind Evin Prison.
Khomeini’s model of religious fascism became — and remains — one of the world’s most inhuman regimes. It has spent vast sums crushing dissent and imprisoning/executing dissenters.
Its practices include rampant corruption and unchecked abuse of human rights.Billions were spent, from the Persian Gulf to IRAQ supporting Bashar al-Assad’s brutal civil war in SYRIA and funding Hezbollah and other terror-ist groups in Lebanon and elsewhere.
Raisi rose through the ranks of the judiciary, specializing in crackdowns on dissent, including the violent suppression of protests in 2009 and 2019.
He became prosecutor-general in 2014 and chief justice in 2019 — the same year that he was placed on the U.S. sanctions list for his oversight of human-rights abuses, including the execution of juveniles and punishment by ampu-tation.
He played a leading role in Iran’s investigation into last year’s downing of Ukrainian Airline Flight 752 by Iranian missiles, which killed all passengers, including 138 Canadian citizens or travellers to Canada.
Iran refused to give Canadian investigators full access to the crash site, and concluded that the disaster was caused by human error.
What happened wasn’t an accident. The governments of the victims should file claims, naming the regime as a defendant for perpetrating a terrorist act.
A state sponsor of terrorism is fortunately an exception to the legal principle of sovereign immunity.
The U.S. government wants to reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran to roll back Tehran’s missile program and curtail the influence of its regional mi-litias. Raisi has said that he won’t meet U.S. President Joe Biden and that the Iranian ballistic missile programme and its regional policies are “non-negotiable”.
Iran insists on a written commitment that no future American administration will withdraw from the deal.
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SAUDI Arabia, the UAE and many other governments mistrust the Iranian regime, sensing that it’s determined to export its Shiite revolution.
They want a solution that muzzles both Iran’s nuclear program and its support to regional militias.
Continued backing of Iran’s proxy militias in IRAQ, SYRIA, Yemen and Lebanon accentuates the spiral of tensions, conflicts and violence in the Mid-dle East. Governments in NATO and beyond must stand with democrats in Iran, SYRIA, IRAQ, Lebanon and elsewhere throughout the region.
In short, it’s difficult to see for now how Iran’s new president on taking office next month will assist the cause of regional peace in any way.
David Kilgour is a former secretary of state for Asia-Pacific in the Chretien government.
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